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TIME to Review Myanmar Policy

Context

  • Recently, the experts on Myanmar have called for India to review its policy and establish channels with the ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) to help the affected civilians. 

Background

  • The conflict between Ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) and the Military Junta in Myanmar has created a serious humanitarian crisis.
  • Since October 2023, the ethnic armed groups and the PDF (People’s Defence Force) in Myanmar have been coordinated in their effort to resist the military junta. They have been able to hold at least 45% of the territory in Myanmar.

India’s policy towards Myanmar

  • India’s traditional policy towards Myanmar has had two main facets:
    • One, to develop good cordial relations with the military junta and 
    • Second, to keep supporting democratic forces and ensure the strengthening of democracy.

Need for Changes in Policy 

  • The conflict is affecting India, as there is an influx of refugees in the country.
  • To counter China: EAOs are being supported by China. At the same time, China has good relations with the military junta. 
  • Many of these resistance groups have taken control of all the trading routes that fall on the India-Myanmar, Myanmar-China, and Thailand-Myanmar border.
  • Weak military regime: In the last three years, the military has not been able to impose its will and the people have rebelled against the military, but they have also not been able to prevail.
    • There is a strong military, political, and diplomatic stalemate in Myanmar.
  • National interest: The political stability of Myanmar is of paramount importance to India, particularly for the northeastern region and its connectivity projects, such as the Kaladan Multi-modal Transit Transport Project (KMTTP).
    • The project is not only a regional connectivity endeavor but a pivotal element of India’s strategic ambitions to counter Chinese influence and enhance stability in its northeastern territories.

Way Ahead

  • India has been closely associated with the Track 1.5 dialogue, which was initiated by Thailand, and in the Track 2 dialogue among scholars of the region, known as the Bangkok process.
  • At the same time, we India has sufficient leverage with the military to convey to Myanmar that their own people are suffering and the instability is having a negative impact across the board and on a major neighbor such as India

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